Promesas vacías, fiestas bonitas y mentiras feas… Presentación Presupuestaria 2019

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Viernes 21 de marzo del 2019

La presentación del presupuesto nos deja con más preguntas que respuestas. La economía básica nos enseña que un déficit en la balanza de pagos (BOP por sus siglas en inglés) significa que importamos más bienes y servicios y capital de lo que exportamos. Para pagar esas importaciones, necesitamos depender cada vez más de préstamos. Los expertos coinciden en que, a corto plazo, una balanza de pagos por déficit puede alimentar el crecimiento económico si estas importaciones se invierten de tal manera que estimulan el crecimiento económico. Sin embargo, los expertos también insisten en que, si el déficit de la balanza de pagos persiste a largo plazo y la deuda que se incurre se utiliza para el consumo, entonces el resultado es la venta de activos como la tierra y los recursos naturales para satisfacer a los acreedores. Si suena familiar es porque cada vez más los beliceños han tenido que pedir prestado para pagar lo que consumen. ¿Recuerdas todos esos tacos de pibil junto al mar y las fiestas alegres de la Navidad y del día de la madre y los contratos inflados a los compinches?

En 2016 tuvimos un déficit comercial con México de -$206.06 millones, en 2017 fue -$201.82 M y -$203.15 M en 2018. El déficit comercial con nuestros vecinos centroamericanos fue de -$182.28 millones en 2016, -$187.03 millones en 2017 y -$199.17 millones en 2018. Otra forma de comparar el déficit comercial es como un porcentaje del PIB. En nuestra propia versión del desafío de diez años, en 2006 el déficit comercial como porcentaje del PIB se situó en -0,052%, diez años después, en 2016, fue del -10,81%. Estrictamente hablando, ejecutar un déficit comercial no es necesariamente una mala cosa si el dinero se invierte sabiamente. Los fondos de Petro Caribe, por ejemplo, deberían haber sido invertidos de tal manera que expandan la economía, aumenten la industria y proporcionen empleo significativo y permanente para que conduzca la economía hacia adelante. En cambio, se utilizó para dar a los compinches contratos preferenciales e inflados para la infraestructura que ni siquiera han perdurado a los términos del contrato de préstamo original.

Este sigue siendo el caso incluso ahora. El camino propuesto a Caracol, por ejemplo, es un contrato de este tipo. Los recursos de este país deberían asignarse de manera que beneficie al mayor número posible de beliceños. ¿Cómo puede el Gobierno de Belice (GOB por sus siglas en inglés) justificar la pavimentación de esta carretera mientras que los niños y maestros de la escuela en el distrito de Toledo deben enfrentarse a carreteras casi intransitables en su camino a la escuela? ¿Cómo puede justificar este GOB los millones que proponen gastar descuidadamente mientras las escuelas se ven obligadas a cerrar por necesitan mantenimiento y reparación? ¿Cómo es que podemos encontrar dinero para la mejora de la carretera Hummingbird pero estamos sin dinero para un hospital, en nuestro principal destino turístico, San Pedro? Debemos insistir en que todos nuestros recursos sean utilizados de la manera más eficiente y eficaz. Debemos invertir capital donde es más probable que dé beneficios para poder pagar lo que ahora debemos.

Se estima que cada hombre, mujer y niño en Belice ahora debe alrededor de $10.000. Todo lo que tenemos para demostrar es el aumento del desempleo, la pobreza absoluta y abyecta, el aumento de las tasas de desnutrición, el aumento de la delincuencia y la violencia. Mientras que este GOB trata de distraernos con tácticas de miedo de una inminente invasión guatemalteca y trata de influir en un voto de sí con amenazas aún más vacías y fiestas tontas. ¡Debemos decir NO! ¡No al CIJ! ¡No a la corrupción! ¡No al mal uso y abuso de fondos públicos! ¡No al UDP!

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